Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
