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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.