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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.