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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still